4/27/2023 0 Comments Latest hurricane track for dorian![]() I’ll be watching this weekend to tease out whether the faster or slower scenario is playing out. In the real world, Dorian continues plowing west-northwest. ![]() Some guidance is more supportive of an offshore track today, and other guidance is not. Overall my Friday evening guru meditation is that individual model changes need to be considered in the context of all available reliable guidance. This is especially true because even if Dorian scrapes the coast, it will be moving much slower than Matthew did, raising the threat of widespread 10-to-15-inch rainfall totals in addition to the destructive wind and coastal flooding impacts. In general, it’s a bad sign when Hurricane Matthew-like track is considered a good outcome, but that’s where we are. It all comes down to where Dorian is on Tuesday, but as an opening bid, I’d ballpark those odds at around 10-15%, 30-35%, 40-45% and 10-15% respectively.Īs the slower tracks on balance become more prevalent, the chances of Dorian reaching the Gulf are declining (and do not necessarily involve much time back over the water) but are not gone entirely. The track forecast for Dorian remains extremely challenging. ![]() The National Hurricane Center says the deadly. The arithmetic of that is left as an exercise for the reader. Hurricane Dorian was a catastrophic hurricane for the Bahamas and got very close to Florida without directly impacting the state. Tropical storm conditions continue along portions of the northeastern coast of Florida as Dorian continues to make its slow trek toward the U.S. The forecaster’s rule of thumb is to take the NHC forecast of a Category 4 hurricane and add or subtract one category’s worth of uncertainty, subject to the MPI limit. I certainly find it worrisome that the Gulf Stream waters Dorian will encounter on final approach to Florida are both very warm and very deep, meaning an extremely high maximum potential intensity (MPI) upper bound of strength. The maximum wind speed of major hurricanes in favorable environments is primarily driven by fluctuations in the internal organization of the storm’s core, which are difficult to predict even hours ahead of time. Hurricane Dorian: Strong model shift to the east brings potential good news for Florida | Analysis.Hurricanes have been an unwanted Labor Day visitor to Florida for decades.Hurricane Disaster responders making plans for potential evacuees fleeing Hurricane Dorian.
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